The U.S. is a long way from widespread adoption of EMV, but security analysts say the boom in online shopping—plus a surge in consumers' use of mobile devices for holiday purchases—will make it easier for fraudsters to hide their moves as they redirect their efforts from retail to online channels.

E-commerce will drive about 17% of all retail sales during the last two months of 2015, up 6% to 8% over last year, according to the National Retail Federation. And e-commerce fraud rates will rise accordingly during the holidays, creating a convenient opportunity for fraudsters to rework their strategies around the new protections chip cards have introduced, said Cherian Abraham, mobile payments and banking adviser at Experian.

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