PALM BEACH, Fla.Hardly anyone at last weeks gathering of acquiring executives could utter a sentence without the phrase "Apple Pay."
But at the same time, the excitement surrounding Apple Inc.s foray into payments didnt seem as unbridled here at the Electronic Transactions Association Strategic Leadership Forum as in the days following the Apple Pay announcement a month ago.
Few at the forum would deny Apple Pay could prepare the nation for mobile payments and rescue Near Field Communication from obscurity. Yet they couldnt say when those seismic shifts will occur.
On the plus side, the fact that a company as big as Apple is taking an interest in the payments industry has to have major impact eventually, noted conference speaker Diane Offereins, Discover Financial Services executive vice presidentpayments.
"Apple is the most successful company of our generation," said another speaker, Ben Katz, CEO of CARD.com
The card brands and major retailers lined up to cooperate with Apple in its payments venture in an unprecedented show of force, said speaker Dan Rosen, partner in Commerce VC.
The resulting momentum for mobile payments represents the technologys best chance for proliferation, he told attendees.
"If this doesnt work, nothing will," Rosen said of Apple Pays boost for mobile payments.
It bodes well for Apple Pay and for the entire payments industry that Apple built its payments venture into the established system instead of circumventing the industry, said speaker Robert Byrne, McKinsey &Co. partner and leader, payments practice.
"This is The Empire Strikes Back," Byrne said, adding that Google and others have tried to establish their own payments systems outside the prevailing industry structure.
Still, Apple Pay hasnt escorted the payments industry to the "tipping point" that will bring an immediate shift to paying with phones and using NFC, he told the audience.
Even Apple, whose phones, tablets and other products have captured the nations imagination, may face challenges in persuading merchants to accept Apple Pay, suggested Offereins.
She noted that Discover has labored for 30 years to convince businesses to take its cards.
"What are you thinking," she asked rhetorically of new entrants to payments, including Apple. "This is hard work."
Even with Apple in the mix, making the public comfortable with paying by phone could take three years, according to another speaker, Sean Banks, a partner at TV Capital.
Moreover, the powerhouse retailers that formed the Merchant Customer Exchange, or MCX, have their own mobile wallet to promote and wont cooperate with Apple, Banks said. Shoppers who cant use Apple Pay at stores operated by MCX members like Wal-Mart, Target and Best Buy may literally forget Apples payment method, he suggested.
Apple Pay simply wont achieve ubiquity, predicted speaker Zach Sadek, principle at Parthenon Capital Partners. Instead, several players could succeed simultaneously, he said.
Whats more, the relatively high-income crowd at the conference may have an inflated view of the importance of Apple, Katz said, noting that the less-affluent choose Android smartphones. In fact, 75% of the smartphones sold in the U.S. last year were Android, he noted.
Thats why Apples payments venture is causing a bigger stir in the payments industry than elsewhere, he suggested.
During Apples recent press conference on whats new at the company, speakers devoted seven minutes the companys watch and 95 seconds to payments, he said.