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There’s a widely held belief that clamping down on fraud in one area will lead to it popping up somewhere else. There is some truth to this — fraudsters favor the points of least resistance. But there are also major exceptions.

This "balloon squeezing" effect was behind much of the reluctance of the merchant community to move to EMV in 2015. The issue is that EMV-chip cards' anti-counterfeiting measures affect only the physical point of sale, and provide no added security to card-not-present environments.

However, as data demonstrates, the growth pattern of card-not-present fraud has proven to be independent of the effect of EMV, and is instead driven by the explosive growth of e-commerce, the Internet of Things — and, unfortunately, data breaches.